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Hello Edge?
對於Jacksonville 美洲虎的12-4來說有兩種截然不同的看法第一種認為他們只是一支平凡的隊伍，只是因為賽程難度低成績才會如此好看，季後賽碰到愛國者讓他們的缺點徹底浮現出來;而另一種觀點則認為他們是一支年輕而且處在進步中的隊伍，同時有足夠的薪資空間來補強。
事實應該是介於兩者之間，他們的實力確實不該有12-4的成績，但是他們在我們網站中的DVOA中也高達第十名。而且跟第四名的差距比跟第十一名還接近。他們在季後賽的表現並不全然是他們的實力，他們也確實有一些薪資空間，但是他們也沒有那麼年輕了。核心球員Mike Peterson, Jimmy Smith, Donovin Darius, and Fred Taylor在下一季都將超過三十歲。
非常諷刺的，美洲虎最大的問題是他們沒有明顯的弱點；一年以前，他們缺乏第二接球員，對於接球後衝刺的防守也不好。獲得防守邊鋒Reggie Hayward 以及Paul Spicer and Ernest Wilford的進步都改善了這些問題。
今年美洲虎主要的問題可能會來自跑陣，但是他們可能不太在意。從1998年開始就是先發的Taylor仍然在陣中，然而他已經不是從前的Taylor了，從2000年開始他的成績每下愈況。我認為過了30歲後那是一種趨勢，你很難說今年他的表現值不值得球隊付他那麼多薪水。
根據他們的薪資空間，如果他們只需要使用Greg Jones或Alvin Pearman，就沒有必要釋出Taylor，但是如果想強化這個位置，他們應該要考慮簽下Edgerrin James。
花大錢在接近30歲的跑衛上是非常危險的，但是美洲虎有必要在Edgerrin James身上賭一把。他現在只有28歲，而他長久以來就是希望能在Florida打球，Jacksonville對他來說是一個有吸引力的選擇。目前傳出Arizona和Minnesota都對他有興趣，假定James願意選擇美洲虎而放棄其他兩隊的邀請，對美洲虎陣容是一個非常大的提升，而他唯一的弱點:短距離持球，也可以被Greg Jones所彌補。
Other Needs
選擇James的其他原因就是美洲虎有這個薪資空間去賭博，即使失敗了也沒那麼嚴重；但一旦成功，所獲得的功效將無法想像。美洲虎目前的重點似乎放在角衛上面，Kenny Wright和Terry Cousin都成為自由球員，他們需要一個關門型的角衛來搭配Rashean Mathis。
然而那一點都不合理。兩個理由:首先，市場上唯一稱得上頂級的角衛只有Nate Clements，他是Bills的核心球員；第二，核心球員Wright和Cousin在傳球防守的DVOA總評是第五，就算增加了Deshea Townsend 能夠提昇多少?即便Townsend不貴，但是花錢去修補一個不存在的洞就是浪費。
另一個美洲虎需要從自由球員市場補強的地方就是進攻一線。Bentley轉來這裡是聰明的。而在絆鋒的位置也需要注意，Steve Hutchinson 也正在轉換位置，選絆鋒來沒特別的意義(這一句不確定)。
How Many Quarterbacks Does a Team Need?
美洲虎在今年季外可能會考慮David Garrard的去留。這個四年的老兵當Byron Leftwich受傷時替補上陣非常出色。DVOA顯示出Leftwich是較佳的球員，但是Garrard也可排到第12名。許多球隊都需要一名優秀的四分衛，再配上他那極為合理的合約，他會是市場上的搶手貨。
事實上，把薪資、傷病史和年紀計算進去，Garrard是一名極為誘人而且一般球隊付擔得起的四分衛。一些明星像是Drew Brees和Daunte Culpepper有嚴重的傷病問題同時佔去很大的薪資空間，在市場上目前沒有人顯示出有和Garrard媲美的能力。
美洲虎似乎對交易他感到猶豫不決，即便他在市場上很有價值。他們關切Leftwich的健康問題，他上一季缺席5場比賽而在季後賽又傷到他的腳踝了。Leftwich在2004也缺席了2場比賽。有一個像Garrard這麼有用的替補似乎是必要的，但是你必須去了解從海豚那裏獲得一個可能的第一輪選秀權或獅子的第二輪或第五輪的選秀權比一個四分衛的替補更有價值。美洲虎最好的選擇是簽下一名像是Jon Kitna類型的替補並且試著把Garrard的價值最大化再將他交易出去。
原文
by Ned Macey
Hello Edge?
Two disparate views of the Jacksonville Jaguars have taken root following their solid 12-4 campaign. The first says they are a mediocre team that took advantage of a weak schedule and was properly exposed by the Patriots in the playoffs. The other is that the Jaguars are a young, up-and-coming team with enough salary cap space to become an elite team.
The truth lies somewhere in the middle. The Jaguars were not as good as their 12-4 record, but they did finish the year 10th in our DVOA rankings and were closer to fourth than they were to 11th. Their presence in the playoffs was not undeserved. They do have a decent amount of cap room, but the truth is they are not entirely young. Key players Mike Peterson, Jimmy Smith, Donovin Darius, and Fred Taylor will all be at least 30 years old next season.
Ironically, the biggest problem for the Jaguars is that they have no seemingly obvious holes to fill. A year ago, they lacked pass rushing defensive ends and a second receiver. The acquisition of defensive end Reggie Hayward and the improvement of Paul Spicer and Ernest Wilford helped the team improve greatly.
This year’s Jaguars team’s only one major weakness is one they may not appreciate, their running game. They still have Taylor, who has been their starter since 1998. Taylor, however, is no longer the back he once was. His DVOA ranked 37th in the league. In fact, Taylor has been declining for years:
Year DVOA Rank
2000 16.9% 3
2001 Injured NA
2002 6.0% 17
2003 -1.4% 26
2004 -3.3% 33
2005 -10.1% 37
I think we can safely call that a trend and one unlikely to be reversed at the age of 30. Taylor is in line to make big money this season, and it is hard to think he would be worth it.
Due to their salary cap space, releasing Taylor would be unnecessary if they were simply going to use Greg Jones or Alvin Pearman. If, however, the Jaguars really wanted to upgrade the position, they should consider signing Edgerrin James.
Spending big money on a running back approaching 30 is a dangerous proposition, but Jacksonville should gamble on James. He will only be 28 years old, and given his long held desire to play in Florida, Jacksonville may be an appealing option. One would assume that James would prefer Jacksonville to Arizona or Minnesota, two teams reportedly interested in him. He would be a massive improvement over Taylor, and James’ one weakness, short-yardage carries, is less of a factor because of the presence of Greg Jones.
Other Needs
The other reason to take a risk on James is that the Jaguars have the cap space to take a hit if he flops, and the possible upgrade at running back is worth the risk. The Jaguars seem to be focusing on free agent cornerbacks. Both Kenny Wright and Terry Cousin are free agents, and they clearly have visions of adding a second shutdown corner to pair with Rashean Mathis.
That doesn’t make sense, however, for two reasons. First, the only great corner on the market is Nate Clements, and the Bills have franchised him. Second, even with seemingly mediocre players like Wright and Cousin, their pass defense was exceptional. They ranked 5th in DVOA in overall pass defense with Wright and Cousin. Do they really think that adding Deshea Townsend will make that much of a difference? If Townsend comes cheap, then by all means sign him, but spending big money to fix a problem that does not really exist is a waste of money.
The one other area where the Jaguars would be well served to shop in the free agent market is on the offensive line. A move for Bentley would be wise here as well, and the Jaguars should also consider upgrading at the guard position. With Steve Hutchinson receiving the transition tag, however, the pickings at guard are slim.
How Many Quarterbacks Does a Team Need?
The Jaguars had one other possible decision this off-season with regard to back-up quarterback David Garrard. The four-year veteran played well while filling in for an injured Byron Leftwich. DVOA shows Leftwich was the better player, but Garrard ranked an impressive 12th. As always, other teams are desperate for quarterback help, and Garrard — who has a reasonable contract — would likely be a hot commodity.
In fact, when salary, injuries, and age are factored in, Garrard may be the most attractive quarterback that could come available. Established stars like Drew Brees and Daunte Culpepper have injury questions and will warrant higher salaries. Nobody else available has the promise that Garrard has shown.
The Jaguars appear hesitant to trade him despite his likely value in the market. They are rightly concerned about the health of Leftwich, who missed five games last year and re-injured his ankle in the playoffs. Leftwich also missed two games in 2004. Having a quality backup like Garrard is certainly appealing, but you have to wonder if a potential first round pick from the Dolphins, or a second and fifth from the Lions, is worth more than an insurance policy on your quarterback. The Jaguars would be better off signing a Jon Kitna-type backup and trying to maximize Garrard’s value while it is highest.
對於Jacksonville 美洲虎的12-4來說有兩種截然不同的看法第一種認為他們只是一支平凡的隊伍，只是因為賽程難度低成績才會如此好看，季後賽碰到愛國者讓他們的缺點徹底浮現出來;而另一種觀點則認為他們是一支年輕而且處在進步中的隊伍，同時有足夠的薪資空間來補強。
事實應該是介於兩者之間，他們的實力確實不該有12-4的成績，但是他們在我們網站中的DVOA中也高達第十名。而且跟第四名的差距比跟第十一名還接近。他們在季後賽的表現並不全然是他們的實力，他們也確實有一些薪資空間，但是他們也沒有那麼年輕了。核心球員Mike Peterson, Jimmy Smith, Donovin Darius, and Fred Taylor在下一季都將超過三十歲。
非常諷刺的，美洲虎最大的問題是他們沒有明顯的弱點；一年以前，他們缺乏第二接球員，對於接球後衝刺的防守也不好。獲得防守邊鋒Reggie Hayward 以及Paul Spicer and Ernest Wilford的進步都改善了這些問題。
今年美洲虎主要的問題可能會來自跑陣，但是他們可能不太在意。從1998年開始就是先發的Taylor仍然在陣中，然而他已經不是從前的Taylor了，從2000年開始他的成績每下愈況。我認為過了30歲後那是一種趨勢，你很難說今年他的表現值不值得球隊付他那麼多薪水。
根據他們的薪資空間，如果他們只需要使用Greg Jones或Alvin Pearman，就沒有必要釋出Taylor，但是如果想強化這個位置，他們應該要考慮簽下Edgerrin James。
花大錢在接近30歲的跑衛上是非常危險的，但是美洲虎有必要在Edgerrin James身上賭一把。他現在只有28歲，而他長久以來就是希望能在Florida打球，Jacksonville對他來說是一個有吸引力的選擇。目前傳出Arizona和Minnesota都對他有興趣，假定James願意選擇美洲虎而放棄其他兩隊的邀請，對美洲虎陣容是一個非常大的提升，而他唯一的弱點:短距離持球，也可以被Greg Jones所彌補。
Other Needs
選擇James的其他原因就是美洲虎有這個薪資空間去賭博，即使失敗了也沒那麼嚴重；但一旦成功，所獲得的功效將無法想像。美洲虎目前的重點似乎放在角衛上面，Kenny Wright和Terry Cousin都成為自由球員，他們需要一個關門型的角衛來搭配Rashean Mathis。
然而那一點都不合理。兩個理由:首先，市場上唯一稱得上頂級的角衛只有Nate Clements，他是Bills的核心球員；第二，核心球員Wright和Cousin在傳球防守的DVOA總評是第五，就算增加了Deshea Townsend 能夠提昇多少?即便Townsend不貴，但是花錢去修補一個不存在的洞就是浪費。
另一個美洲虎需要從自由球員市場補強的地方就是進攻一線。Bentley轉來這裡是聰明的。而在絆鋒的位置也需要注意，Steve Hutchinson 也正在轉換位置，選絆鋒來沒特別的意義(這一句不確定)。
How Many Quarterbacks Does a Team Need?
美洲虎在今年季外可能會考慮David Garrard的去留。這個四年的老兵當Byron Leftwich受傷時替補上陣非常出色。DVOA顯示出Leftwich是較佳的球員，但是Garrard也可排到第12名。許多球隊都需要一名優秀的四分衛，再配上他那極為合理的合約，他會是市場上的搶手貨。
事實上，把薪資、傷病史和年紀計算進去，Garrard是一名極為誘人而且一般球隊付擔得起的四分衛。一些明星像是Drew Brees和Daunte Culpepper有嚴重的傷病問題同時佔去很大的薪資空間，在市場上目前沒有人顯示出有和Garrard媲美的能力。
美洲虎似乎對交易他感到猶豫不決，即便他在市場上很有價值。他們關切Leftwich的健康問題，他上一季缺席5場比賽而在季後賽又傷到他的腳踝了。Leftwich在2004也缺席了2場比賽。有一個像Garrard這麼有用的替補似乎是必要的，但是你必須去了解從海豚那裏獲得一個可能的第一輪選秀權或獅子的第二輪或第五輪的選秀權比一個四分衛的替補更有價值。美洲虎最好的選擇是簽下一名像是Jon Kitna類型的替補並且試著把Garrard的價值最大化再將他交易出去。
原文
by Ned Macey
Hello Edge?
Two disparate views of the Jacksonville Jaguars have taken root following their solid 12-4 campaign. The first says they are a mediocre team that took advantage of a weak schedule and was properly exposed by the Patriots in the playoffs. The other is that the Jaguars are a young, up-and-coming team with enough salary cap space to become an elite team.
The truth lies somewhere in the middle. The Jaguars were not as good as their 12-4 record, but they did finish the year 10th in our DVOA rankings and were closer to fourth than they were to 11th. Their presence in the playoffs was not undeserved. They do have a decent amount of cap room, but the truth is they are not entirely young. Key players Mike Peterson, Jimmy Smith, Donovin Darius, and Fred Taylor will all be at least 30 years old next season.
Ironically, the biggest problem for the Jaguars is that they have no seemingly obvious holes to fill. A year ago, they lacked pass rushing defensive ends and a second receiver. The acquisition of defensive end Reggie Hayward and the improvement of Paul Spicer and Ernest Wilford helped the team improve greatly.
This year’s Jaguars team’s only one major weakness is one they may not appreciate, their running game. They still have Taylor, who has been their starter since 1998. Taylor, however, is no longer the back he once was. His DVOA ranked 37th in the league. In fact, Taylor has been declining for years:
Year DVOA Rank
2000 16.9% 3
2001 Injured NA
2002 6.0% 17
2003 -1.4% 26
2004 -3.3% 33
2005 -10.1% 37
I think we can safely call that a trend and one unlikely to be reversed at the age of 30. Taylor is in line to make big money this season, and it is hard to think he would be worth it.
Due to their salary cap space, releasing Taylor would be unnecessary if they were simply going to use Greg Jones or Alvin Pearman. If, however, the Jaguars really wanted to upgrade the position, they should consider signing Edgerrin James.
Spending big money on a running back approaching 30 is a dangerous proposition, but Jacksonville should gamble on James. He will only be 28 years old, and given his long held desire to play in Florida, Jacksonville may be an appealing option. One would assume that James would prefer Jacksonville to Arizona or Minnesota, two teams reportedly interested in him. He would be a massive improvement over Taylor, and James’ one weakness, short-yardage carries, is less of a factor because of the presence of Greg Jones.
Other Needs
The other reason to take a risk on James is that the Jaguars have the cap space to take a hit if he flops, and the possible upgrade at running back is worth the risk. The Jaguars seem to be focusing on free agent cornerbacks. Both Kenny Wright and Terry Cousin are free agents, and they clearly have visions of adding a second shutdown corner to pair with Rashean Mathis.
That doesn’t make sense, however, for two reasons. First, the only great corner on the market is Nate Clements, and the Bills have franchised him. Second, even with seemingly mediocre players like Wright and Cousin, their pass defense was exceptional. They ranked 5th in DVOA in overall pass defense with Wright and Cousin. Do they really think that adding Deshea Townsend will make that much of a difference? If Townsend comes cheap, then by all means sign him, but spending big money to fix a problem that does not really exist is a waste of money.
The one other area where the Jaguars would be well served to shop in the free agent market is on the offensive line. A move for Bentley would be wise here as well, and the Jaguars should also consider upgrading at the guard position. With Steve Hutchinson receiving the transition tag, however, the pickings at guard are slim.
How Many Quarterbacks Does a Team Need?
The Jaguars had one other possible decision this off-season with regard to back-up quarterback David Garrard. The four-year veteran played well while filling in for an injured Byron Leftwich. DVOA shows Leftwich was the better player, but Garrard ranked an impressive 12th. As always, other teams are desperate for quarterback help, and Garrard — who has a reasonable contract — would likely be a hot commodity.
In fact, when salary, injuries, and age are factored in, Garrard may be the most attractive quarterback that could come available. Established stars like Drew Brees and Daunte Culpepper have injury questions and will warrant higher salaries. Nobody else available has the promise that Garrard has shown.
The Jaguars appear hesitant to trade him despite his likely value in the market. They are rightly concerned about the health of Leftwich, who missed five games last year and re-injured his ankle in the playoffs. Leftwich also missed two games in 2004. Having a quality backup like Garrard is certainly appealing, but you have to wonder if a potential first round pick from the Dolphins, or a second and fifth from the Lions, is worth more than an insurance policy on your quarterback. The Jaguars would be better off signing a Jon Kitna-type backup and trying to maximize Garrard’s value while it is highest.
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